Hurricane Idalia
Idalia has intensified overnight.Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed believable surface winds of 50-55 kt and a central pressure falling to around 989 mb. The wind data is also confirmed by NOAA buoy 42056, located just southeast of the center, which has reported maximum 1-minute adjusted sustained winds above 50 kt within the past hour or two. These data support raising the initial wind speed to 55 kt.
Over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is forecast to become conducive for significant strengthening of Idalia due to a new trough dropping south over the western Gulf of Mexico as a upper-level ridge builds near the cyclone. Additionally, Idalia will be moving over waters near 31C
rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS rapid intensification indices, which are 5-10 times the climatological mean. The new prediction shows a 100-kt hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but Idalia should keep strengthening up to landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.
This one looks nasty! Watching.
/fl