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Weather
Tropical Activity Update
Still watching the (yet unnamed) activity brewing off the west coast of Africa. The gfs 2023092012 Forecast projects this system to be near the east coast of Puerto Rico by Thursday 28 Sep. And then—we’ll see.
A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
UPDATE: The gfs 2023092112 Forecast now predicts that the center of this system will turn north prior to reaching Puerto Rico and pass east of Bermuda.
Watching.
/fl
Weather
Tropical Activity
It’s that time of year to get a little paranoid I guess. It’s way early, but I don’t like the UKM forecast track of the system forming up near the west coast of Africa.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Watching.
/fl
Weather
That Time of Year
Here we are, September already, halfway through the ‘normal’ season for tropical storms without any local threats—thanks to Idalia giving us the cold shoulder. That’s the good news. Not to boast however, we are at the threshold of the peak of the season, with talk of an extended season due to a slight increase in climate warming. Speculation? So far, so good… Watching.
/fl