Tropical Activity Update
Still watching the (yet unnamed) activity brewing off the west coast of Africa. The gfs 2023092012 Forecast projects this system to be near the east coast of Puerto Rico by Thursday 28 Sep. And then—we’ll see.
A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
UPDATE: The gfs 2023092112 Forecast now predicts that the center of this system will turn north prior to reaching Puerto Rico and pass east of Bermuda.
Watching.
/fl