Blog
Politics
Finale
After watching conflicting testimony during Thursday’s Supreme Court confirmation hearing, it appears to me that the left-wing resistance to Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation based their narrative on politics and a 36 year old high school yearbook. What they didn’t seem to consider is something that they are obviously unfamiliar with and don’t seem to understand; that something is integrity. Integrity is all there is, sans reliable overriding documentary evidence. Integrity carried the day for Judge Kavanaugh, and the left-winger’s were busted, or should I say the left-winger’s busted themselves—again.
Veritas vos Liberabit
/fl
High Seas Drama
Telltale Buoyancy
An inherent characteristic of most cruising catamarans is their reserve buoyancy. That characteristic is most appreciated when watertight integrity has been compromised. In this case, buoyancy led to the downfall of a sinister plot.
Back in the spring of 2017, Lewis Bennett and Isabella Hellman, both in their early 40s, were supposed to be enjoying a belated Caribbean honeymoon aboard the 37-ft catamaran Surf into Summer. They were headed back to Florida on the final leg of that cruise when, in the early hours of May 15, something went terribly wrong.
According to Bennett, he was asleep below when, sometime after midnight, he felt the boat hit something. He bolted topside but could not find his wife, he said, and the boat was starting to sink. He set off his EPIRB, and, a few hours later, Coast Guard searchers found him in the boat’s life raft with a few belongings.
A four-day search turned up no trace of Hellman. But it did turn up the boat a few miles away. It was suspended just below the surface, rig still in place and a reefed main still up. Coast Guard divers went down to take a look. They found no damage to either hull that you would expect from a collision. There were, however, indications that “holes had been made from the inside,” suggesting Surf into Summer might have been scuttled. They also noted the escape hatches at the aft ends of both hulls were open.
Things got weirder from there.
Among the items Bennett took into the liferaft with him was a stash of gold and silver coins. Those turned out to be part of a cache of coins worth about $35,000 that had been stolen from a St. Maarten-based charter boat that Bennett had been working aboard earlier in the year. Authorities later searched his house in England (he holds dual citizenship in Australia and the UK) and found the rest of them.
For that crime, Bennett was sentenced to seven months in prison in Florida.
While he was serving that sentence, the Coast Guard and FBI continued the probe into the disappearance of his wife. And the evidence continued to mount that something more sinister than a collision was going on. The couple had been having disagreements over money and the fact that Bennett wanted Hellman and their then 9-month-old daughter to move to Australia. Hellman, a real estate agent in Florida, didn’t want to go.
Finally, in February of this year, the FBI charged Bennett with second-degree murder, alleging that he staged the ‘accident’ to hide the homicide — actions that would have allowed him to receive the insurance money for the boat, as well as Hellman’s Delray Beach home and her money.
Bennett, who is still being held in prison in Florida, will go on trial in December. His daughter, now almost 2, is believed to be currently living with Bennett's parents in England. The beacon that the Coast Guard placed on Surf into Summer stopped transmitting, and she is presumed to have sunk.
The sea reveals more truth than most politicians.
/fl
Security
Remembering “Columbine"
The word “columbine” depicts the name of a flower, such as the white-flowered Colorado Blue Columbine. To me the name will always represent a “Connie"; it was the name of President Eisenhower’s aircraft—back before we started referring to the presidential aircraft as “Air Force One.” That “Columbine" was in the news quite often when I was in high school.
In keeping with mankind's ability to turn something lovely into something ugly, survivor Evan Todd reminds us of the April 20, 1999 attack on Columbine High School in Jefferson County, Colorado.
It’s going on 20 years since this event occurred, and yet we still have schools without armed and trained faculty/staff responders. People are still relying on deadly "gun free zones” for protection from the incarnate evil that murdered 13 people that day at Columbine High School.
/fl
Politics
He’s a “3rd rate lawyer” and a “lowlife”
Not necessarily in that order… Michael Avenatti seems to have plenty of company—and it’s all bad.
Thanks to modern technology, we can all partake of some high-level converse with nothing redacted (that’s refreshing).
Avenatti is a third rate lawyer who is good at making false accusations, like he did on me and like he is now doing on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. He is just looking for attention and doesn’t want people to look at his past record and relationships - a total low-life!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 26, 2018
“False accusations?” Like those crimes your fixer Cohen pled to? You are an habitual liar and complete narcissist who also is a disgrace as a president and an embarrassment to our nation. You are so inept that your “best and brightest” are Cohen and Giuliani. Let’s go.
— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) September 26, 2018
Ain’t “social media” great…
Time to shift into 4-wheel drive!
/fl
Politics
“My name is Margaretha Zelle, and I was groped in 1912”
The left wing has become so transparent in their behavior that a person would have to be detached from reality to be ignorant of their tactics. We’ve been through this before. The accusations without credible evidence. Claim/counter-claim. So many times that it can be considered another ‘playbook’ operation by the left!
If a person were looking for a way to shut down the American system of jurisprudence, how better to do that than create a situation where the supreme court of the land have members that have skirted the law themselves; or to create a situation where a nominee might be threatened with becoming involved in a Supreme Court ‘case’ himself sometime in the future. Never mind that the accusations have no merit. The media will provide credibility; that seemed to work recently in assembling the infamous “dossier.”
What better way to get a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court to ‘voluntarily’ withdraw his nomination than to burden him (and his family) with claims of sexual misconduct.
If you would like to see some evidence, look no further than The Atlantic:
If Kavanaugh were to ask my advice today—and to be clear, he hasn’t done so—I would tell him he almost certainly should have his nomination withdrawn. The circumstances in which he should fight this out are, in my view, extremely limited. I would advise him against letting Senate Republicans ram his nomination through in a fashion that will forever attach an asterisk to his service on the Supreme Court.
or the New York Times
Even if Kavanaugh is innocent of the charge of a teenage sexual assault, I argued, to give such prominence and power to a man credibly accused would both leave an unnecessary taint on his future rulings...
This matter needs to be put to rest. And, in a manner that leaves no room for claims of “retaliation” in the future.
The October 2018 term of the United States Supreme Court will begin on Monday, October 1st. That’s just one week away—seven days!
Status quo in 2018; shades of Mata Hari.
/fl
Law
Cape Ray dismay
There are a bunch of people, like Colin Grabow and the late senator John McCain, who would like to see the "Jones Act" go away. Sure, the whole United States ship building industry could go the way of Jeffboat with a round of reckless voting and the stroke of a pen. But, what happens next?
The argument’s for doing away with the existing law go something like this:
As North Carolina grapples with the aftermath of Hurricane Florence, transportation officials in the state are attempting to secure the use of a U.S. government-owned vessel, the Cape Ray, to transport supplies to the port of Wilmington…
It’s a good thing the ship is government-owned—under private ownership the Cape Ray’s provision of relief supplies would be illegal. This absurd situation is due to a nearly 100-year-old law called the Jones Act. Passed in 1920, the law mandates that ships transporting goods between two points in the United States be U.S.-owned, crewed, flagged and built. The Cape Ray, however, was built in Japan….
...there is little difficulty locating foreign-flagged ro-ro vessels in the mid-Atlantic region…. But because of the Jones Act, none of these ships are eligible to take on relief supplies at a U.S. port and speed them to Wilmington….
It’s time for the Jones Act to go.
Wouldn’t it be more economical to have the government find (or hire) someone bright enough to write a Jones Act Waiver into the Emergency Disaster Plans?
/fl
Culture
Surviving a Train Wreck
The first rule is to ‘hang on"
Sometimes it seems as though the United States of America has become a slow-motion train wreck. We can sense by the rumble and vibration that we are off the rails, and are waiting with bated breath to see what happens next.
The word “conservative” has become an unreliable indicator of a person’s worldview. Historically, conservatism in this country has long held Judeo-Christian principles, along with a biblical worldview, as bedrock elements. Is that not so any more? If that is no longer the case, then that’s where the train left the track.
In his Daily Briefing today, Albert Mohler comments on "Why the secular turn in conservatism imperils the very foundation of conservative thought."
Hang on—and spread the word!
/fl
Culture
Further investigation reveals….
James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas is getting ready to unveil more domestic enemy!
The most revealing thing about O’Keefe’s work, so far, has been the general lack of concern from the voting public to his disclosures. Maybe this series will be the one that overcomes that big slug of toxic inertia.
Over at Patriot Post, Rebecca Hagelin poses a pertinent question.
/fl
Weather
Florence Finally Ashore
BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018
...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC…
INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
Water, water, everywhere…….
/fl
Weather
And Now: The Surge
[O]n Wednesday evening the hurricane had a less impressive unsymmetric appearance, with the eye filled with low-level clouds. The south side of the storm had little upper-level outflow, and there was likely some wind shear affecting the storm there.
The most concerning forecast continued to be from our top model for forecasting hurricanes, the European model, whose 12Z Friday run predicted that Florence’s stall would occur just offshore of the NC/SC border, with the hurricane then traversing the northern half of the coast of South Carolina just offshore, until making landfall near Charleston. This would allow Florence to keep its eye over water, greatly increasing the amount of rain it can generate, and would subject a very long stretch of coast to high winds and a destructive storm surge. Our other top models--the GFS, HWRF, UKMET, and HMON--all predicted Florence would move ashore near the NC/SC border, then turn to the west-southwest over land. On this track, Florence would still keep a large part of its circulation over water and dump extreme rains, but would not bring a devastating storm surge and hurricane-force winds to a long stretch of coast. By Monday, Florence is expected to be headed due west.
The greatest damage from Florence is likely to come from its rains, which may cause catastrophic flooding along a long swath of its track. The storm’s second greatest threat is storm surge; Florence’s wind field has put a large region of ocean into motion, which is already increasing water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina. As of 6 pm EDT Wednesday, the highest surge along the coast of the Carolinas that had occurred was 1.8 feet at Oyster Landing, SC (see the SURGEDAT storm surge update page for live storm surge values along the path of Florence).
/ WU
Weather
Florence Update
The path of Hurricane Florence is still set squarely on the Carolinas, but the storm was downgraded to a Category 3 and remained that way as of 5 p.m. Wednesday.
But Florence was still almost a Category 4, with winds in the 120 mph range, the NHC said as of 5 p.m. A Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph. A category 4 is 130 to 156 mph.
Changes in the storm’s strength are possible through Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and though the storm may slowly weaken late Thursday, Florence “is still forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane” when it nears the coast.
The storm’s track also changed early Wednesday morning as Florence slowed and shifted south and west, encompassing more of South Carolina and western North Carolina.
The “probable” forecast path for Florence as of 5 p.m. Wednesday showed the storm shifting farther toward the southern North Carolina coast and the northern half of the South Carolina coast, with the forecast cone stretching into Georgia, western North Carolina and Tennessee, according to the NHC.
Once it makes landfall, the current forecast path shows the storm making a turn even farther south toward southern South Carolina and Georgia around Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center was reporting waves within the storm are 83 feet high, and rainfall projections for coastal North Carolina are in the 20 to 40 inch range.
The first projections of tornadoes have also been released, with the National Hurricane Center reporting “tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina beginning late Thursday morning.”
/NOAA
Weather
Florence
Florence will reach the southern coast of North Carolina on Thursday night as a very dangerous major hurricane. It now looks increasingly possible that Florence will stay near the coast (either inland or just offshore) for a day or longer, perhaps moving southwest along the coast. In this case, the coastline north of the center could experience storm surge during at least two 12-hour tidal cycles, rather than just one, and at least some surge could spread southwest with Florence. Florence’s track beyond Friday is still subject to major change as the weak steering currents evolve...
Surge flooding may push well inland through rivers across the coastal plain of North Carolina. As Florence’s rains pile up, inland flooding will become an increasingly serious threat. Referring to the expected rainfall totals, NHC warned: “This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding.”
Florence is a historic storm. Its strength, size, and potentially unorthodox track all point to outcomes that may lie outside historical experience…. it’s entirely possible that Florence might become a Category 5 for at least a few hours on Wednesday. If so, it will enter the history books as the northernmost Category 5 on record.
A very dangerous system with high potential for the history books! There has been plenty of warning, so let’s hope and pray that everyone in the path of this thing has made wise decisions.
/fl
Weather
Florence Closes In on North Carolina
As near as I can tell, the storm is going to hit sometime during the time listed in red below:
Normal Tide Predictions for New River Inlet, North Carolina
2018-09-12 22:35 EDT 3.56 feet High Tide
2018-09-13 04:45 EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
2018-09-13 11:03 EDT 3.78 feet High Tide
High tides would normally be between 3.5’ and 4.0’. Combine that with a 15’ storm surge and you’re looking at close to 20’ of salt water in addition to the heavy rainfall. Any boat tied up to a normal piling would be (very wet) toast!
Hopefully all of the people will be on high ground—and safe.
/fl
Weather
Florence
Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane… the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.
None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
The predicted path of Hurricane Florence has the center of the storm (low) making landfall Thursday afternoon on the coast of North Carolina. Depending on the strength of the storm when it makes landfall, the surge could be 15 or more feet. Evacuation is mandatory and critical for those persons living in low lands near shore.
/fl
Weather
The Tropics Come Alive
The Northern Hemisphere bristled with tropical cyclones on Sunday afternoon, September 9, 2018…
[T]here’s plenty to track in the tropics, including a hurricane and a typhoon that will both affect U.S. territory. Here’s a rundown from west to east, which corresponds to the rough timing of potential land impacts.
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean between Cuba and Honduras, due to the interaction of a tropical wave with an upper-level trough of low pressure. This system was moving west-northwest to northwest at about 5 – 10 mph, and will enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The upper-level trough was creating high wind shear of 30 – 40 knots, preventing development. This trough is forecast to weaken and move northward over the next few days, creating a lower shear environment in the Gulf of Mexico that may allow development to occur, before the system moves inland over Texas on Thursday or Friday. The southeast half of Texas is already facing several days of heavy rain and localized flash flood threats this week, thanks to a midlatitude disturbance that will swing over the region and slow to a halt.
Plenty of things to watch…
/fl
Government
What Is
No Senator is better qualified to educate the uneducated, regarding the duties of a Supreme Court Justice, than Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Here, he presents an excellent summary of the current state of affairs in his opening statement during the recent confirmation hearings.
Senator Cruz’s remarks were a welcome breath of fresh air following the asinine display that we witnessed during the opening of the proceedings.
/fl
Weather
Gordon
Tropical Storm Gordon is passing well to the south of Pensacola.
When you compare the precipitation graphic on top to the track forecast in the bottom image, you can see that most of the activity in these things is located off the starboard bow of the low (i.e.. the Northeast quadrant.) This is a fairly weak storm. If it were stronger, Pensacola would probably have some tornado warnings posted. Instead, we have light rain and 13 mph wind which will probably be gusting to no more than 25-28 mph.
/fl
Law and Order
Suspended from Uber and Lyft
I guess that it’s wrong to assume that Uber and/or Lyft would conduct their own search for the truth regarding the incident involving their driver Robert Westlake. The “app” companies want Westlake to "send us paperwork clearing you.”
Apparently, Uber and/or Lyft would rather have their drivers gunned down than engaged in controversy; that’s the nature of political correctness.
/fl
Weather
Tropical wave near the Turks and Caicos
Headed for the Gulf of Mexico….
A tropical wave located on Saturday near the Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, and eastern Cuba was headed west-northwest at 10 – 15 mph. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression when it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into the system on Monday, if neccessary.
The wave is expected to continue to battle high shear through Sunday as it moves over eastern Cuba and The Bahamas, and development is unlikely during this period. On Monday, the wave is expected to cross Florida and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where a modest drop in wind shear may allow organization into a tropical depression to occur.
The 0Z Saturday European model forecast predicted a tropical depression would form on Monday and make landfall in Louisiana on Tuesday night, as did about 40% of the model’s ensemble members.
Watching…..
/fl
Seamanship
Seaworthy
About 71% of Earth's surface is covered with water, mostly by oceans, and much existential freedom comes from knowing that you can navigate the “big part” in a small boat.
It’s satisfying, even if not practical, to contemplate the thought of leaving the dock in Pensacola, Florida in my 26’ sailboat and traveling to Barcelona, or the South Pacific islands, or some such place. It’s also good to read about the sailor's who are actually doing those things. One such sailor is 79 year-old Sven Yrvind:
It will take him the best part of a year to complete the voyage; a prospect that holds no fears for this sailor-philosopher. “Only the true, eternal, endless, blue, wet, deep ocean can cure me from nostalgia, sehnsucht and saudade and bring me back to the spiritual state of my youth,” he wrote. “That’s why I long to be out sailing again… If all goes well the first day I will have the wide open spaces in front of me, three- four-hundred blissful days at sea.”
Fair winds, and following seas!
/fl