Disturbance Number 1
Aaaaaaaaand they're off!
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Tropical Atlantic: A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Upper-level winds are expected to increase later today and development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
I have pleasant memories of nine bareboat charter cruises to the northern Bahamas islands, including the Abaco’s, throughout the 1980’s and early 1990’s during the month of May, and the weather during all of them was almost ideal. Usually, the prevailing winds out there shift to the East around the end of April, leaving a much more pleasant Gulf Stream crossing. I also remember one trip to Bermuda that we launched on June 1st in 1986 that did not go so well, thanks to some relatively early tropical activity (Tropical Storm Andrew) that was following a path similar to this “disturbance.” That year, 1986, was a "very inactive season that produced 10 depressions, 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes.” So, maybe this year will be a repeat? We’ll see—no doubt…
/fl